I’m no expert, but I have been an educator, a soldier (mainly but not always of the rear echelon type), and the son of a man who was a WW2 vet and an international research economist. I joined the Army in the feel-good-but-not yet-back-for-action days of the early eighties, and I stayed as long as I could dodge my five-year physical; poor vision almost prevented me from enlisting to begin with.
You might imagine I’d react to the Ukraine War differently than most. I’m going to show my posts (italicized) and now that the war is three weeks old, I can wonder whether and to which degree I was right. This is from 2/24/22
The European theatre of World War 2 didn't begin in 1939. It began with much smaller, carefully crafted alliances, occupations, invasions, and participation in foreign civil wars. As each of these operations ended, there were great minds who believed that, at that point in time, the danger had passed, and peace was attainable. How different our history might have been, had there been more will to resist the occupation of Ethiopia by the Italians, or the takeover of Spain by Franco, or the annexation of Austria, Czechoslovakia, and Hungary by the Nazis. After Ukraine falls, one only has to study the map to guess who is next. In this sense the Russians are the Realists and we are the Starry-Eyed Dreamers. We have sanctions, and we are willing to use them; they have tanks, planes, guns, and fighters who will rebuild the Russian Empire, if we allow it.
This isn’t a bad analogy, but it doesn’t wear well. One can claim that Russia’s actions in Georgia and Chechnya were their own preludes to their invasion of Ukraine. At the time I was expecting Ukraine to fall, so I was thinking about the next war. As it appears today (3/17/22), Russia might not emerge from this war as a serious threat to its neighbors. The next conventional war they wage might wait for decades. Had I understood that, this post would have been very different, or never posted at all.
This is from 2/26/22:
I am informed that western nations are still purchasing Russian coal, natural gas, and oil. If this is accurate, there is a giant gap in the sanctions against Russia. Could we simply just suffer for a month or two in the late-winter cold? Could we band together and use the energy that remains for heating sites and essential activities? If we can't, the proper read is: we hate what Russia's done to Ukraine, but not enough to sacrifice our creature comforts.
There is so much more to do.
We could attempt to seize the assets of Putin's oligarchs and take steps to revoke their residency visas--yes, those actions will be invalidated in court--but the message would be received: you are not welcome in a freedom-loving world so long as you support this Russian regime. Wars force citizens to take sides. The Russians who have protested against the war are heroes beyond compare, given what they are sacrificing. It's time to show Putin's patriots that they will have consequences to face. At the very least, we can pull the plug on Putin's apologists in the USA. We can find better things to do than pay attention to people such as Donald Trump and Tucker Carlson.
We could inform China, India, and the UAE (the abstainers in yesterday's UN Security Council vote on a resolution condemning Russia) that their products are no longer welcome in our country so long as they are allied with Russia. Wars require governments to take sides, and Russia's allies must be held accountable for the Russian actions they condone. At the very least, we can tell the world that we will put freedom above wealth. Britian fought the Nazis even though they knew they couldn't afford it, and their empire collapsed very soon after that war concluded. Why shouldn't we do the same?
We could inform Russia that if they insist on subjugating Ukraine to their raw imperial ambitions, we reserve the right to help liberate Venezuela, a particularly ghastly Russian and Chinese client state, one that has no difficulty starving its people, and whose leadership is flush with wealth from illegal trades in gold, oil, and drugs. At the very least we ought to arm the Venezuelan people, thereby negating the monopoly of force the Maduro government holds. If Venezolanos are willing to fight for their freedom, who are we to hold them back?
If we are not ready to oppose the dictators with weapons and lives, I don't think it's wrong to put creature comforts on the line, including the web, which our enemies have the capacity to disrupt already.
Freedom was never free.
My friends and colleagues tell me I’m a hawk. I’m grateful that they omit the prefix “chicken-,” but I will accept that label as well. While most governments allied with Ukraine have done much of what I asked for here, I remain afraid that, given time, most freedom-loving families will return to obsessions over the price of gasoline and the populist performances on social media. There’s been little pressure brought to bear on China and India, the latter of which had a deeper relationship with the U.S.S.R. than most Americans know. (Would it kill us to study the Cold War, and learn of the various shifting alliances and postures within it? No, but we won’t: any critical look at our recent history seems beyond our ability.)
The analogy to Britain vs Nazi Germany is wrong, though it was heady to write. We are not under threat of invasion, as they were in the autumn of 1940. We will lose reserve currency status, as they did, and perhaps sooner than you or I imagine. We will not be able to project force around the globe in the future. When this happens, we might be better suited to be a regional power.
This brings me to Venezuela. It’s really bad form for me to hold Venezuela up as possible great-game retaliation, for three reasons: we have a history in Latin and South America, and it’s not good; it’s hard to see that the benefits of Venezuelan liberation justifies the costs; and even if said liberation were swift and effective (not likely), we’d make it too easy for the authoritarian propogandists abroad and at home to paint us as the problem. Poor Venezuela must liberate itself. As I wrote in the post, we can provide weapons; we appear to be very capable of that.
In the main, I’m pleased that Europe intends to free itself from the Russian energy market. I’d pay to see that happen—perhaps I already am.
Finally, I posted this on 3/3/22:
Facts don't care about your feelings, but propaganda does, intently.
I did not specify which propoganda; there’s a lot of it about. Beware of messages that pull at the heart-strings.
So what, then? Is the Russo-Ukraine war a test of civilizations, a power-grab by a receding power, a prelude to larger wars to come, or something else entirely? I don’t know, but I don’t want the democracies of the world to lose this battle. I certainly don’t want to see what else Russia and China have up their sleeves. Let’s beat them now!