I wrote this months ago, but I let it sit for the time being. Would I still hold the opinion that I convey here later? I do. Nothing is a perfect summary of my conflicted attitude towards our tortured geo-politics, but I come close here. Please read on:
If we could first know where we are, and whither we are tending, we could then better judge what to do, and how to do it. –the first line of Abraham Lincoln’s “House Divided” speech.
Do we fully realize whither we are tending? I think not.
I’ve been called a warmonger. I don’t mind that; I’m an unreformed Cold Warrior. I am worried that, if the guardians of freedom do not fully intend to fight for it, then the opponents of freedom will fight to dominate their regions. (They might not stop there.) We are living in a bad time for peace and a bad time for freedom.
In the case of the United States of America, this reluctance to fight for freedom is completely understandable. I challenge you, dear reader, to name the wars we’ve fought since 1945 whose result was worth its cost in blood, treasure, or political capital.
My list is short, and at the top of it is the Cold War. What’s problematic about that is that any casual reader of history would collect many of the other wars we’ve fought since 1945 as battles in service of Cold War strategy. I accept that.
Can we fight another Cold War? I think not.
Can we fight more limited wars that serve as battles in support of a New Cold War strategy? I think not.
Does the rest of the world understand this? I think so.
Withdrawal is one option. We could simply close the overseas bases, undo our treaties and security arrangements, perhaps even leave the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). If the Republican Party wins the presidency and Congress in the 2024 elections, I expect this to happen.
Withdrawal will not make us safer or happier. Withdrawal will not stop our enemies from attacking us, as they already are through trade, satellites, social media, and in their many proxy wars. The attacks on Ukraine and Israel follow the pattern of the attacks on the 2016 and 2020 elections–they are meant to divide public opinion in the free nations of the world, and they are succeeding.
I have read more than one analyst claim that we are indispensable to the defense of freedom around the globe. I think not.
Let’s assume that Russia eventually “wins” its war against Ukraine, leaving aside what “victory” looks like. What then? Will Russia regain any trust with the Poles, Germans, Swedes, Finns, Estonians, Latvians, and Lithuanians, to name just a few of the opponents of this new Russian Empire? I think not. Will those nations return to regular trade with Russia for oil and gas? I think not. A motivated bloc that includes those nations (and others) can effectively resist Russia.
Let’s assume that Hamas eventually “wins'' its war against Israel, however difficult that is to imagine. Will Gazans live in their own state, with a government that is committed to their political freedom as well as the trade and education necessary to build their wealth and happiness? I think not. Will the Palestinians’ allies band together to help them? Sadly, I think not. Will Israel cease to exist? I think not.
I also believe a motivated bloc that includes Japan, South Korea, Australia, the Philippines, and Vietnam (among others) can effectively resist China.
A darker assumption: what if Russia, China, and Iran knock out our satellites, destroy the dollar as a reserve currency, neuter the United Nations, and turn their enemies against each other? What if governments in Central and South America continue to destabilize their nations and send floods of refugees to the US southern border? Our lives would be meaner, immediately. And, no, the “elites” would not take the worst of it.
We must defend what is worth defending: our friends, liberty, and our way of life. That involves supporting our allies in their struggles, reforming our political and economic systems (more federalism, fewer subsidies, less debt) so that American citizens have a sustainable future, and pulling away from addictions (violence, drugs, alcohol, gambling, social media) that isolate us and make us poorer and less healthy.
We can do that. Do we need to fight land wars to make that happen? Gladly, I think not.