Start at 1%
by Alan Dyche
Foreword
I didn’t plan on writing another gambling book; too much has already been said, quite a bit of it is junk, and I’d already written three short gambling books, all of which are worthy.
What changed mt mind? A visit to my local casino at 5:30 pm on a Saturday in June 2021. There are only five games worth playing at my local casino—there’s no advantage to offering a good deal when you’re the only game in town. (Let’s just leave bar machine games out of the discussion. If you play those regularly, you really need help!) I turned sixty bucks into eighty-two, which a little larger percentage than I usually win. Starting with such a low bankroll is difficult, as I was playing five dollar games. If I had a five- or six-hand losing streak, I would have been in trouble. It was good for me that such a streak never occurred.
I started with console blackjack for five dollar minimum bets, down shifted to video poker for dollar minimums, and finished with a nickel video poker “multiplier” game that kicks out random multipliers. I won at all three. Even if I hadn’t won all three, I’d have been okay.
Why? Because I started at one percent. That’s a one percent house advantage.
All of my games were open to anyone who wanted to play them, but, people being people, they were just going with the flow, never asking critical questions, playing whatever they thought was fun or hot. I’m not “people.” (Those Doctor Who fans in the audience might remember the Doctor’s query: “Am I ‘people?’ Do I look like ‘people’ to you?”) Well, I’m not a Time Lord, and neither am I a Cyborg, but I’m zeroed in on the cost of playing every game, and I can tell you that everybody else is just lighting their money on fire. You don’t have to be like me, all the time. But if you can be like me part of the time, you’ll be better off, I promise.
Let’s Talk About What 1% Means
I’m not kidding, we need to talk about this, and not just because I have a slightly different concept of what one percent means.
What I call a one-percent game is any casino game with a theoretical house advantage that rounds down to one percent. If the house advantage is 1.5 percent or greater, the game doesn’t qualify as a “one percent” game in my way of thinking, and the number of games that are true one-percent games keep shrinking. It’s getting hard to find them, but they exist.
Why not two percent, or three percent, then? Why am I so fixated on this one percent?
If you play negative expectation games, your chance of winning doesn’t decrease in a straight line as the house advantage increases—your chance of winning decreases exponentially.
So if you play a game with a three percent house advantage, your chances of being an overall winner aren’t three times as small as if you were playing a one-percent game: your chances are much more like six or nine times smaller.
Play around with a casino simulator and you’ll see. Wait a minute, I’ll play with one for you. I’m writing a simulation on Python and listing the results below. Each number is the balance after one hundred bets of ten dollars each at a game that pays one to one. The house advantage is listed at the top of each column:
(This table didn’t import in this format. Sorry!)
There’s quite a bit of “noise” in this data set (such as the biggest loss being in the game with the one percent house advantage), but the trend is clear. As you read to the right you find fewer positives and more negatives
Another peculiarity of this simulation, to me—I rarely play 100 hands of any game. I tend to get in, get a small win, and get out. If I do play 100 hands, it’s almost always because I fell behind and I’m hoping for a lucky streak to get me closer to even. Most of you already know how that situation usually winds up. I chose 100 hands of the game because most table players (and almost all slot players) will play long enough to enjoy (or not enjoy) one hundred spins or hands.
What are the 1% games and how much do they cost?
I concluded that this book is not worth the effort after doing more research and coming to the conclusion that the true one percent games are out of reach to the average player.
Yes, there are one percent table games available even at my local casino, but the minimums involved are $15 to $50. This is not a good level of betting for a casual gambler. Six straight losing hands happens infrequently, but often enough: if you, dear player, encounter that at these tables you are down $90 to $300 immediately. What is worse, if the game you’re playing is blackjack, those six straight losing hands might include losing splits and doubles, and represent a loss worse than six minimum bets.
What are these (expensive) 1% games?
Craps, if you bet Pass or Don’t Pass only.
Blackjack, if you follow basic strategy every hand and never play the side bets.
Baccarat, if you only bet Player or Bank, and avoid Tie, or any side bets.
Jacks or Better Video Poker, on the table that pays 9 coins for a full house and 6 for a flush, playing five coins per hand, and then only if you follow basic strategy every hand. (This pay table doesn’t exist at my local casino, and it can usually be found in Las Vegas at the dollar level, making each hand $5. As fast as Video Poker plays, this is considerably worse for the casual bettor than playing Craps at $15 per hand.)
If you have $500 per day to play with, I recommend that you learn all four of these games and try them until you have a favorite. You will find it hard to lose more than $500 per day if you play perfectly, take breaks after winning sessions, and cut losing sessions short after you’re ten minimum bets down. Many readers who find this book will have that budget.
If you have $100 or less per day to play with, I don’t have much help for you, except to note that electronic versions of Blackjack, Craps, and sometimes Baccarat are available, even in Las Vegas Strip casinos. If you are truly fortunate you’ll find $2 or $1 minimum bets. Players avoid these electronic games because they don’t trust that the games are fair—but they are the exact same game. You have an added advantage at these games—it’s easy to jump in and out, as there are no chips to cash out or in. I have passed a pleasant vacation at Las Vegas Strip resorts playing $5 craps machines carefully and in short sessions, scraping up small wins. (I’ve also had sharp losses, but at $5 minimums I don’t lose more than $50 at a time.)
If you can stick to these 1% house advantage games, you’ll lose less—which in gambling means that a little luck will make you a winner. You won’t have to pray for a jackpot to be ahead. You will have to learn strategy and exercise discipline, but you knew that, right? The strategic player will almost always beat the casual player at any game. I hope you learn to start, and stay, at one-percent house advantage games.